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In All Uncertain Terms

Hey Rhetors,

From March to April of 2020, Airbnb lost 80% of its revenue. 

Few, if anyone, could have seen the COVID-19 pandemic coming. But here was Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, looking at this company’s terrible financial statement and these statistics of the time:

Some business leaders might look at those issues, then back at their own company, and hang up the towel. Not Chesky. Instead, he put his company into crisis mode and rebuilt from the ground up. 7 months later, Airbnb IPO’ed at $68 a share. Today, the company is worth $84.5 billion. 

This transformation started with Chesky’s communication. I wish I could point to some grand speech that made his employees want to run through a wall, but the truth is that Chesky did something over the course of 2020 that is a great lesson for anyone: he didn’t shy away from “uncertainty communication.”

What Uncertainty Communication Is

Before we make any decision, we have to at least have confidence in it. That’s why uncertainty causes so many problems. When you don’t know the whole picture, you automatically have less confidence in your choices. 

For Chesky, his uncertainty lay in the immediate future: could his company come out of this? Compared to risk, like how you know losing a coin toss is always 50%, Chesky had no way of truly knowing what could happen with the pandemic and the hospitality industry. 

Chesky’s goal (and anyone’s when faced with communicating uncertainty) was to convince his audience that his idea was correct. So just how did he do this?

Lesson 1: Don’t Shy Away

When we face uncertainty, the first reaction is to find another statistic or reason to lean on. This is the wrong decision. If you shy away from what everyone else is feeling or seeing, then you erode trust, the exact thing you from people when they don’t know anything else.

One of the first decisions Chesky had to make was what to do with all the bookings that were cancelled due to no travel. He decided to offer full refunds to all of the customers. The hosts of those bookings, with suddenly no income for the immediate future, had to be convinced to stay with Airbnb. Chesky wrote them all a letter, and at the beginning said this:

“Like many of you, I wake up every day distanced from friends and co-workers, wondering what the world has in store.”

Chesky immediately made himself relatable, and did not shy away from the reality of uncertainty. 

He then detailed an stimulus action plan to help them all through the short term, and then ended on an optimistic note grounded in reality:

“Trust is the foundation of a partnership, and it is built over time. We know that we have some work to do in strengthening yours, but it’s our priority and we are committed to it. When travel comes back—and it will—we look forward to welcoming millions of guests together again.”

Instead of a delusional “Everything is fine from a business perspective,” Chesky chose instead “I’m not sure of our current state, but I know it can work. Here’s how I know, and here’s how we’ll get there.” That’s facing uncertainty head on.

Lesson 2: Stay Consistent

When asked about those 7 months of the pandemic in a Stanford Business podcast interview, Chesky said this: “What do you do when there’s no data? You have to lean on something. You need to have courage. But what does courage lean on? Courage has to lean on principles.”

In essence, Chesky knew he had to lean on a consistent belief when the rest of the situation could change on a dime. That’s why Chesky did over 100 press interviews that year, communicating early and often that he knew travel would come back, and that despite the issues going on in the world, his company could make it. That effort reassured both his employees and the public that Airbnb would come out of this nightmare. 

Until the uncertainty is cleared, you have to show conviction that what you believe in is correct. Stay consistent!

Lesson 3: Get it Out, Even if It's Not Perfect

There’s a timing window to communicating uncertainty. If your audience doesn’t hear from you for a long enough period of time, they’ll lose trust in you. Many (myself included) fall under the trap of trying to find just the right thing to say, and that takes a long time. By then, your message has lost its effectiveness.

Chesky unfortunately had to layoff 25% of his workforce during the pandemic. He knew he had to get a letter out as soon as possible to stay ahead of expectations. He also wanted to make sure that, while this moment sucked for the employees and the company, there was a plan to help them through this. Here’s what Chesky did, relaying this in an interview with McKinsey and Company: “I also didn’t want to have a lot of BS in the letter. I included HR and legal, but I told them, “I would rather say a couple of wrong things and embarrass myself, but at least people know I’m speaking from the heart, than execute it coldly and perfectly.

“That letter here, if you want to read it. It’s a good piece, and he does speak from the heart, earning more trust than losing it. That message came out on May 5th, only days after the April closing numbers, where I told you at the beginning of this post that Airbnb had reported that they had lost 80% of their revenue. So communicate early!

This week: Find Something You Don’t Know the Outcome of

To practice uncertainty communication, find a part of your life that feels foggy. It could be a business issue, relationship, upcoming event, or something else entirely. As you’re thinking through it, ask yourself if there’s someone else who, if told about the issue, might feel better or worse depending on how you relayed that uncertainty. 

By using these three lessons, you might find a way to approach that uncertainty yourself. Who knows? Maybe your actions will result in an $84.5 billion company too!

Talk soon,

Tim

Curation Corner

If this is your first TWR post, here’s the skinny. Every week, I put together the following, so you can explore communication related and adjacent works by people much more creative and skilled than me! Take a look at this week’s below:

Quote of the Week: “The more involved you are, the more significant your learning will be” Stephen Covey: azquotes.com/quote/861671 

Video of the Week: “The Office” phone call practice scene. Always a classic: https://youtu.be/qHrN5Mf5sgo?si=fT2MfoHRjz6-Ja1a 

Podcast of the Week: “How to introduce yourself – and get hired” by TED Talks Daily: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3lGFNmgoqwnNJQML7aYFqO?si=d5e69d110c4448a8 

Book of the Week: Extreme Ownership Jocko Willink and Lief Babin. I’m only halfway through this one, but already it has so many great nuggets of wisdom about being a leader. Plus, Navy SEALs being badass: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23848190-extreme-ownership